The Election of 2020
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After some research, I have concluded that Donald J. Trump is most likely going to win the election of 2020.
Trump is not going to win a supermajority of delegates like how Nixon and Reagan performed in the elections of 1972 and 1984, respectively. The elections of 1968 and 1980 suggested that they would win a supermajority of delegates, whereas there were no indicators in the aftermath of the election of 2016. Therefore, I've decided that there are 13 "toss-up" states that are up for grabs in 2020. I used every election since 1992 to determine which states are "toss-ups"; states that voted for both parties but generally aligned with one party are considered toss-ups. I also included the 2nd Congressional District of Nebraska and the 2nd Congressional District of Maine; the former voted for Obama in 2008, while the latter voted for Trump in 2016, even though they normally vote for Republicans and Democrats, respectively. Overall, I was generous in my decision-making, which led me to the following scenario:
Hence, this following map is the most ideal scenario for Republicans:
This following map is the most ideal scenario for Democrats:
Under the assumption that Bernie Sanders wins the Democratic primary, which the polls below currently indicate, and in leveraging the poll statistics of the election of 2016, I've concluded that this following map is the most likely scenario for 2020:
My prediction:
In my prediction, I only altered the map of 2016 in two ways. I transferred Pennsylvania to the Democrats as well as the 2nd Congressional District of Maine. I changed the 2nd Congressional District because I see it as an outlier in its usual trend, and I changed Pennsylvania because the Real Clear Politics ("RCP") average in 2016 in Pennsylvania showed the Democrats 2.1 points ahead of Trump, while Trump ended up winning with 0.7 points. The RCP average thus far in 2020 shows the Democrats 4 points ahead of Trump, which a margin of 0.7 points would not compensate for.
Pennsylvania in 2016:
Pennsylvania in 2020:
The opposite appears true in Michigan and Florida, which are two of the most competitive states in the election. In Michigan, the RCP average showed Hillary well ahead of Trump in the primary stage of 2016, but in the primary stage of 2020, Trump has a significant lead ahead of all Democrats (i.e., relative to 2016).
Michigan in 2016:
Michigan in the primary stage of 2020:
Similarly, in Florida in 2016:
Florida in the primary stage of 2020:
The reason I speak in terms of "Democrats" and "Republicans" is because elections are generally determined based not on the public's perception of a particular candidate, but rather the public's perception of a particular party. Allan Lichtman provides great evidence in his "15 Keys to the White House": https://atwar-game.com/forum/topic.php?topic_id=41781
Trump is not going to win a supermajority of delegates like how Nixon and Reagan performed in the elections of 1972 and 1984, respectively. The elections of 1968 and 1980 suggested that they would win a supermajority of delegates, whereas there were no indicators in the aftermath of the election of 2016. Therefore, I've decided that there are 13 "toss-up" states that are up for grabs in 2020. I used every election since 1992 to determine which states are "toss-ups"; states that voted for both parties but generally aligned with one party are considered toss-ups. I also included the 2nd Congressional District of Nebraska and the 2nd Congressional District of Maine; the former voted for Obama in 2008, while the latter voted for Trump in 2016, even though they normally vote for Republicans and Democrats, respectively. Overall, I was generous in my decision-making, which led me to the following scenario:
Hence, this following map is the most ideal scenario for Republicans:
This following map is the most ideal scenario for Democrats:
Under the assumption that Bernie Sanders wins the Democratic primary, which the polls below currently indicate, and in leveraging the poll statistics of the election of 2016, I've concluded that this following map is the most likely scenario for 2020:
My prediction:
In my prediction, I only altered the map of 2016 in two ways. I transferred Pennsylvania to the Democrats as well as the 2nd Congressional District of Maine. I changed the 2nd Congressional District because I see it as an outlier in its usual trend, and I changed Pennsylvania because the Real Clear Politics ("RCP") average in 2016 in Pennsylvania showed the Democrats 2.1 points ahead of Trump, while Trump ended up winning with 0.7 points. The RCP average thus far in 2020 shows the Democrats 4 points ahead of Trump, which a margin of 0.7 points would not compensate for.
Pennsylvania in 2016:
Pennsylvania in 2020:
The opposite appears true in Michigan and Florida, which are two of the most competitive states in the election. In Michigan, the RCP average showed Hillary well ahead of Trump in the primary stage of 2016, but in the primary stage of 2020, Trump has a significant lead ahead of all Democrats (i.e., relative to 2016).
Michigan in 2016:
Michigan in the primary stage of 2020:
Similarly, in Florida in 2016:
Florida in the primary stage of 2020:
The reason I speak in terms of "Democrats" and "Republicans" is because elections are generally determined based not on the public's perception of a particular candidate, but rather the public's perception of a particular party. Allan Lichtman provides great evidence in his "15 Keys to the White House": https://atwar-game.com/forum/topic.php?topic_id=41781
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If democrats wont find the right person to become a president, they will lose again.
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they already fucked up, it ain't joe
----  Best mod ever <3  Best admin ever <3  " I declare the creation of the United States of Atwar. " - Dave Washington, 6/7/2020
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