Will the Syrian regime fall?

I'm going to assume they will fall in 4 years due to Assad's army crumbling along with financial difficulties. I see rebel forces slowly inching their way to Damascus until finally Assad escapes, dies, etc. I don't see his army winning unless they fight defensively and let the rebel groups kill each other.

Turkey should take over Syria resulting in new borders n shit.

Every regime falls at some point, but i belive that the syrian regime will survive quite long

There is no yes

נכתב על ידי blargh, 24.05.2015 at 17:50

There is no yes

The years mean when you predict it will fall

2 years it will fall

Sooner or later all regimes and empires fall

נכתב על ידי Skanderbeg, 25.05.2015 at 05:02

Until Iran and Russian Federation support Syrian legal government, they will win. But if Iran and Russian Federation stop supporting Syria, they might fall after few years.

By my calculations, syrian rebels wont fight for long because their arsenal is scarce, no ammunition, food, medicine. They recieve funds from US but not as much Syria recieve from Iran and Russian Federation. Syria have more tanks, artillery, jet fighters, helicopters, more ammo and shells, more equipment while rebels have only rifles and few tanks.

But there is another problem: ethnic problem. Syria isnt a nation, they are like United States, country of many ethnicities. There are Arabs, Kurds, Turks, Alawites and now they dont want to live together anymore. So if Syrian Government win, some ethnic minority will complain and rebel again, but also if rebel force win, war will continue like in Libya because they are unable to control the country (because they are barbarian terrorists obviously). Maybe they will try to ethnically cleanse each other.

Even if Syrian Government start losing, Russian Federation might attack ISIS to relieve the pressure from syrian front, but also do damage to syrian rebels beside ISIS. Maybe that way give superiority to Syrian and Iraqi forces to restore their territory from rebels and terrorists. Plus to test new Russian weaponry which Russian Army recieved recently.

I think the rebel forces have a chance of toppling the regime. Syrias army is half it's strength and are relying on Hezbollah to lead it's troops on many fronts. The economic strain is costing Assad billions. I can only see Assad pulling back and simply guarding what he has right now. I don't know if Russia will get involved currently due to what's going on in Ukraine, Putin is really starting to lose his support on the inside (I don't see him becoming leader of Russia when his term is up).

נכתב על ידי Skanderbeg, 25.05.2015 at 10:10

נכתב על ידי Pheonixking929, 25.05.2015 at 09:05

I think the rebel forces have a chance of toppling the regime. Syrias army is half it's strength and are relying on Hezbollah to lead it's troops on many fronts. The economic strain is costing Assad billions. I can only see Assad pulling back and simply guarding what he has right now.

Both sides, government and rebels are exhausted and losing troops, deserters or KIA. Only side gaining troops now is ISIS. Its been 4 years since war started and ISIS is new and not tired. Plus their fanaticism and mentally insane drive forward their military.

נכתב על ידי Pheonixking929, 25.05.2015 at 09:05

I don't know if Russia will get involved currently due to what's going on in Ukraine, Putin is really starting to lose his support on the inside (I don't see him becoming leader of Russia when his term is up).

Ukraine is not related to Syria, and Russian Federation isnt involved in Ukraine so it doesnt lose strength or power. Ukraine is fighting its own population. If Russian Federation was involved in Ukraine, it wouldnt let to be involved for whole year, but for few days, like Russian-Georgian War of 2008 (lasted only 5 days). Beside, we all know if Russian Federation get involve in Ukraine, EU and USA would invade Russia. Thats the proof Russian Federation isnt involved, US didnt attack yet.

Actually, Putin gained 10% boost in support, Russians arent stupid, no matter what US and EU think. Russians know that leadership isnt important now, but survival of the nation. US nukes are targeting Russian cities, CIA is working in Russia, bribing ethnic minorities and muslims, EU sanctioned Russian Federation, NATO brought 100,000 troops near Russian border.

Putin's popularity jumped to 85% from 75% in only 6 months when EU sanctioned Russian Federation. Russians are uniting around Putin, and Russian opposition parties are gathering around Putin, Gorbachev gave support to Putin as well, Russian Church, Russian Muslims, Bhuddists. Whole Russia is aware if political system collapse now, US and EU will invade Russia and divide it on 100 new states. And if that happen, millions of Russians will die.

My thing is with the assassination of Boris and that one Chechnyan guy (cant remember his name, the guy who is ruling it right now), I see some cracks between Putin and the FSB.

As for the civil war, I see Daesh remaining strong. AIr strikes are only slowing them down in certain areas. They worked in Kobani, but unless there is a ground force that is willing to fight (like the Kurds), then no amount of bombs will change anything. Daesh gets all these new weapons from Iraq and can simply funnel them across the border. Unless Assad gets more help, I see Daesh taking the lead in the fight against Assad. It's a shame the world community waited to long. Now any "moderate" elements are unable to fight effectively and are forced to disband to join extremist groups.

נכתב על ידי Skanderbeg, 25.05.2015 at 12:11

נכתב על ידי Pheonixking929, 25.05.2015 at 10:20

My thing is with the assassination of Boris and that one Chechnyan guy (cant remember his name, the guy who is ruling it right now), I see some cracks between Putin and the FSB.

Boris Nemtsov? We will probably never know what happened there. Could be FSB, but why would FSB kill him in public like that when they could just imprison him like KGB did for 70 years. They could torture him, interogate, question him, force him to admit anything in Lubyanka basement. Nemtsov was politician for 20 years, so FSB had 20 years to arrest him or kill him if they want. It doesnt make sense to assassinate him 20 years later when he became minor figure and not threat to the system.

I just know Vladimir Putin was furious when he heard the news, and my guess is CIA killed Nemtsov because 2 days later he shouldve had a anti-russian parade in Moscow. He thought to create Russian spring and try to topple legal Russian Government. So that might look like FSB killed Nemtsov so he doesnt lead revolution.

What Chechen guy? Ramzan Kadyrov, President of Chechnya? What about him?

Ramzan doesn't get along with FSB. Didn't they arrest Checnyans who were allegedly involved with Boris' death? Many people don't like Ramzan in Russian government and I wouldn't be surprised if FSB was mad Putin still supported the guy. Kill Boris and blame Checyans.

No.

נכתב על ידי Skanderbeg, 25.05.2015 at 17:01

נכתב על ידי Pheonixking929, 25.05.2015 at 15:32

Ramzan doesn't get along with FSB. Didn't they arrest Checnyans who were allegedly involved with Boris' death? Many people don't like Ramzan in Russian government and I wouldn't be surprised if FSB was mad Putin still supported the guy. Kill Boris and blame Checyans.

No no he got in fight with Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs(Police) because ethnic Chechen is killed in Chechnya by Russian police officer from another region, so Kadyrov got in fight with Russian police to arrest and trial that officer.

Ramzan Kadyrov is good, like his father before him, he is loyal to Russian Federation and fought Caucasian terrorists for 10 years, he hold rank of General and is awarded hero. His father died by terrorist hands in age of 50 in 2004.

He said he is not against Russia but just want justice and probe in the police to check if they used force(police brutality). He jokingly said he's a foot soldier who obey his supreme commander Putin and will resign if commander order him so. Even die if needed.

http://rt.com/politics/252905-kadyrov-interior-ministry-chechnya/

I understand he is fiercely loyal to Russia and most specifically Putin, but his absolute rule in the region (at least from what I have read) has created some enemies with other russians. I'm not an expert on Russia, nor do I claim I am. Simply a guy interested in politics.

I hope Israel falls first.

Syria ruled by Assad will not fall if Iranian and Russian support continues, besides, killing Assad or "kick him out of power" will not change much, ethnic conflicts will still last, as Syria is made of several minorities and ethnicities, and like someone said earlier in the thread (dont remember name sorry ), replacing Assad by some "barbarian" rebels or terrorists isnt a better solution either, especially when they will use their power (with no experience) to target "enemy" minorities, so I feel that a change of power in Syria isnt a good solution (or the best solution) either.
Besides, there are outside interests in keeping Assad in power, especially foreign interests...

נכתב על ידי theFuehrer, 27.05.2015 at 10:58

I hope Israel falls first.

Israel is a democracy and as far as I know, a free country, the jews and arabs may not get along that well but they won't ''fall''